Memory Foam Mattress

Market: UKSector: Home FurnishingsDate: January 2016

At the height of the memory foam mattress explosion of 2016, we tested a new variant designed to standout via luxury pricing and audience targeting. However, our analysis predicted that the crest of the wave was approaching: competitor sales had been brisk for over a year and the market was cluttered with startup brands and offerings. This meant that the specific customer audience being targeted by our test product was approaching saturation, and the timescales of the replacement cycle meant that most of the target audience would be unlikely to trial any new products in the coming 4 years. Category sales amongst the niche target audience did, in fact, decline in the months following our test and the sector, though growing, is, still highly competitive and dominated by big brand key players and competitive pricing policies.

Fashion Subscription Service

Market: Spain, Germany & the UKSector: Fashion & Accessories, Online ServicesDate: July 2021

Despite the limitations caused by the pandemic, young fashionable audiences in Spain, Germany and the UK continue to employ in-store shopping alongside online channels. In this project, whilst our modelling predicted the apparel sector would likely grow significantly in the medium term, few target consumers have personally used online subscription services, and even fewer were interested in doing so. Furthermore, the product we tested did little to stimulate demand: Likely trial volumes were very low, and when actual pricing was factored into the equation, overall uptake of the product was deemed likely to be negligible. Drilling down into consumer reactions, however, did offer a silver lining: younger consumer cohorts care about sustainability and fashion, and if a curated portfolio of trendy, luxury brands were included, this could stimulate demand and cause Gen Xers in particular to trial the service. Thus, better brand partnerships and customer segment targeting could be the route to success for the founder

Online Fx Swapping Service

Market: UKSector: Fintech, TravelDate: February 2020

In February of 2020, the international travel sector was robust and growing. Though cash was still king amongst travellers, most used a portfolio of payment methods whilst abroad and new technologies were driving advancements that were quickly being taken up: one in five travellers used e-wallets and one in four had payment cards exclusively intended for use abroad. Product usage trends augured good opportunities for our test product. Our models predicted that cash would become less popular, and that Britons would adopt products specifically designed for travel: pre-loaded cards siloed for travel use and credit cards anchored in foreign currencies were forecasted to grow significantly. Consumers’ primary quibble at that time? Security, and currency rates. Thus, the test product was ideally placed to enter the market. An online fx exchange platform allowing travellers to swap currencies and load them onto a travel payment card played right into the needs of the target audience, and this was reflected in demand forecasts both in terms of product trail probabilities as well as modelled trial volumes. Sadly, it all came to a standstill with the start of lockdown.

Vegan Dog Supplements

Market: UKSector: fmcg, PetfoodDate: November 2019

We tested a new entrant to the UK pet food category: a fully vegan & sustainable high-grade dog food supplement designed to address all the main health issues that dogs have with their digestion, skin and coat. Our sales trial forecasts indicated a highly profitable and sizeable market opportunity for vegan products in the pet market: a trend that has since been borne out. Between now and then, vegan pet products have become mainstream, and sales of vegan pet food and supplements has grown significantly in recent years.

Air Purifier & Ioniser

Market: US, FrancSector: technology, white goodsDate: 2017 and 2020

Longitudinal studies allow us to explore changes in consumer sentiment and trends, and we often find that clients retest founder products either after seismic shifts to the market, or when product innovations are significant. The a portable air purifier and ioniser test that we conducted for the US market demonstrates this perfectly: during 2017, we saw modest demand for the category suppressed by high pricing and a lack to perceived market needs, but at the height of the pandemic, consumer sentiment changed drastically and sales demand forecasts more than doubled. Not surprisingly, however, pricing strategy needed fine-tuning: uncertainty over the future and being cash-strapped meant that demand could not be realised high one-off up front pricing.

Hormone Tracking App

Market: UKSector: FemtechDate: April 2020

The health and wellbeing app sector is a growing sector, currently dominated by the sports & fitness, weight loss and diet & nutrition categories, which our modelling suggested was likely to be reaching terminal velocity. Consumer trends at the time of testing indicated that the greatest growth potential lay in newer categories including sleep, mental health & support and applications for specific health problems such as diabetes or back pain, though all categories were likely to see continued consumer interest. Within the category of women’s health and hormone tracking, we found a clear opportunity for growth. However, women are a diverse group with myriad needs and overall, current offerings do not build this into their delivery. Thus, whilst modelled trial likelihoods for our test application were high, they could have been much higher. There exists a clear opportunity for recruiting specific customer segments by supporting and communicating USPs around less ‘traditional’ issues such as irregular periods & amenorrhea, perimenopause, the impact of HRT, support for transitioning women, breastfeeding, and allowing natural improvement of all hormonal symptoms and issues.